A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
